Thursday, November 10, 2011

Tanier: 49ers' leap into contention is no fluke

Here are 9 things you need to know about how Harbaugh's team has turned it around

Image: San Francisco 49ers head coach Harbaugh congratulates quarterback Smith after a touchdown during the second quarter of their NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in San FranciscoReuters

By not asking quarterback Alex Smith to do too much,?49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh allows him to be a ?game manager? in the true sense of the word.

ANALYSIS

updated 1:53 p.m. ET Nov. 9, 2011

Mike Tanier

If you have not seen much of the 49ers during their 7-1 start, you are not alone.

They have not played in prime time. After last year?s 6-10 finish, they don?t merit the national broadcast very often. You can hear the announcers at the end of the early broadcast in your head: ?Stay tuned for the Packers game, folks. Some of you will see the Cowboys. Niners fans, climb to your roof and reattach your satellite dish to face the opposite direction to see a few blurry images of Frank Gore.?

That is all about to change. The Niners face the Giants this week in a battle of two first-place teams. They have Thursday- and Monday-night games coming up, and you better believe they will be a hot flex schedule commodity. Oh, and they could clinch a playoff berth before December, so you are sure to see them come January.

That means it?s time to get caught up on the surprising Niners. Here are nine things you need to know to be an expert on all things scarlet and gold:

1. There?s more to this hot start than an easy schedule
The Niners may be the only carnivores in the NFC West petting zoo, but they have beaten some good teams this year. The Lions and Bengals are likely playoff teams, and the Buccaneers and Eagles aren?t exactly pushovers. That is what is scary about this hot start. The Niners still have five games left against the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks. Even if they trip over one of their division foes, they have a smooth elevator ride to eleven wins.

2. Yes, this is the same Alex Smith
Alex Smith has not gotten bigger. It?s the expectations that have gotten smaller. He has improved in just about every statistical category, but a look at the game tape shows that he has not suddenly acquired the ability to throw 30-yard lasers into tight coverage. Jim Harbaugh has installed a system that lets Smith do what he does well ? distribute short passes, make a few plays on the run and protect the ball in critical situations.

Harbaugh allows Smith to be a ?game manager? in the true sense of the word. Smith has converted just five first downs on 22 attempts on third down and more than 10 yards. Two of those conversions came on short passes, with the receiver picking up the first down with yards after the catch. Smith throws short or throws the ball away on third-and-long, and Harbaugh is OK with that. The Niners win with defense, special teams and running, not aerial dynamics.

So Harbaugh has learned to get the most of Smith?s ho-hum performances, whereas Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary would hook Smith in an effort to get some kind of ?spark.? The knowledge that he won?t be pulled after two or three passes has to help Smith?s confidence.

3. The Niners special teams are truly special
David Akers has missed just two field goals and is 4-for-4 from beyond 50 yards. Andy Lee averages a whopping 43.3 net yards per punt. Ted Ginn has both a punt- and kick-return touchdown and consistently provides punt returns in the 18-25 yard range. The coverage units are solid. Akers, Lee and Ginn are all veterans with proven track records, so they should continue to give the Niners a huge edge in the kicking game.

Image: San Francisco 49ers v Philadelphia Eagles

Hunter Martin / Getty Images Contributor


4. Cornerback Carlos Rogers is a whole new player
Rogers was nothing special when he was with the Redskins. He was inconsistent in coverage and known best for dropping interceptions. This year, he has three interceptions and has demonstrated some uncanny instincts in zone coverage. Rogers has become a weapon against wide receiver screens. He has made five tackles on passing plays for two yards or less, often reading the screen and zeroing in on the receiver as soon as the ball is snapped. Rogers, who has said that the was not happy in Washington and now feels ?free? to play the way he is capable of, has made a major difference on defense.

5. The open field is closed
The longest run from scrimmage against the 49ers' defense this year netted just 24 yards. More amazingly, the Niners have allowed just 11 running plays of 10 or more yards, two of them Michael Vick scrambles. Football Outsiders keeps track of ?Second Level Yards? and ?Open Field Yards,? the yardage gained by ball carriers when they first break through the defensive line and when they are in a footrace against the secondary. The Niners defense is the best in the league in both categories (the full rankings are here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl ). This is exactly how a 3-4 defense is supposed to operate. A running back might gain three or four yards, but he won?t get much further.

6. Harbaugh is not shy about trick plays
Ted Ginn has five carries for 37 yards, but an end-around to a track star receiver may not be your idea of ?trickery.? How about an 18-yard pass to a 315-pound lineman? Left tackle Joe Staley often lines up as an eligible receiver in jumbo formations, and Harbaugh dialed up a rollout pass to him, the kind of play you usually only see as a goalline surprise. Isaac Sopoaga, a 330-pound defender who doubles as a short-yardage blocker, also has a reception this year. Tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker have gotten involved in the end-around game. Some of the wrinkles may be too cute for their own good ? Davis and Walker have three carries for minus-eight yards ? but opponents must be ready to expect the unexpected.

Image: San Francisco 49ers v Cincinnati Bengals

Jamie Sabau / Getty Images


7. The other linebackers are good, too
Patrick Willis is one of the two or three best linebackers in the game, but he is getting a lot of help from his teammates this year. Ahmad Brooks, a situational player for years, has five sacks and has made an impact as an every-down player. NaVorro Bowman leads the team in tackles, and coaches claim that he is nearly interchangeable with Willis in most packages. Aldon Smith is a deadly situational edge rusher with 6.5 sacks, while Parys Haralson has made his mark as an early-down player with three forced fumbles. These linebackers have had the benefit of two great coaches ? defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who coached the Sam Mills-Pat Swilling-Rickey Jackson-Vaughn Johnson Dome Patrol in New Orleans, and Mike Singletary, who was Mike Singletary.

8. Frank Gore is running smarter, not harder
Gore still runs really hard, but Harbaugh is giving him some help this year. The primitive Singletary-era tactics ? endless I-formation smashes into the line ? have been replaced with more creative running plays that allow Gore to cut back, pick his holes and not get hammered until after he is past the line of scrimmage.

The diagram shows a 15-yard Gore run from last week?s game against the Redskins. Before the snap, this looks like it will be a run to the left, because tight end Walker (46), fullback Bruce Miller (49) and a receiver are all to that side of the formation. The Redskins have no choice but to commit extra defenders to that side of the field. But at the snap, Gore takes one jab step left and runs a counter to the right. Three blockers flow with him: center Jonathan Goodwin, who pulls and takes out the ?force defender?; Walker, who makes sure the defensive tackle over Goodwin does not go anywhere; and Miller, who lead blocks and follows the first Redskins defender in pursuit. Gore has it easy: the blockers do all the work until he is well downfield. In past years, this play would be an off-tackle run into the teeth of the defense, and Gore would have struggled for four tough yards.

The Niners have many variations on this type of play: cutback runs, with two or three tight ends on the field, that allow Gore to use his experience to find holes instead of his brute force to make his own. Like Smith, Gore is thriving now that a little less is asked of him

9. Don?t get carried away
The 49ers are a good team, and by the grace of their schedule they are all but guaranteed a playoff berth. They are also a team with minimal big-play ability, with a lot of 13-8 and 25-19 wins on their resume, and with a knack for facing opponents in crisis (the Browns without Payton Hillis, the Redskins without half their starters). Come playoff time, they will be more like last year?s Seahawks than a real contender. They can surprise someone in the first round, but their clock will be ticking.

Still, after eight years of frustration, it is fun to be talking about the 49ers as a playoff team, not just as a supporting cast for the tireless Gore.

Mike Tanier writes for NBCSports.com and Rotoworld.com and is a senior writer for Football Outsiders.


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